Will we grab the universe? Grabby aliens predictions.



In the previous video, we talked about why humanity seems to have appeared very early in the universe: among the first civilizations that could ever appear. Earliness constitutes a riddle. It makes humanity’s situation seem rather mysterious. Robin Hanson, who introduced the idea of the great filter, solves this riddle by postulating that civilizations that he calls “grabby” will soon fill the universe. As anticipated, grabby aliens are the main assumption of a detailed model describing how such aliens expand and distribute in the universe. The model makes many interesting predictions, such as when we’ll meet grabby aliens, our chances of hearing alien messages, and becoming an interplanetary civilization ourselves. It also answers why we don’t see aliens yet, considering the universe’s large number of stars and galaxies. These predictions are the topic of this video.

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Robin Hanson’s paper on Grabby Aliens: https://grabbyaliens.com/paper

Grabby Aliens website: https://grabbyaliens.com/

The Great Filter – Are We Almost Past It? https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/greatfilter.html

The Grabby Aliens Model — 3D Sim, by Daniel Martin: https://youtu.be/oLvzFJLLfCY

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Narration by Robert Miles: https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI

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Chapters:

0:00 – Introduction
1:50 – 3D simulation
2:48 – The power law
4:20 – Estimating “k”
5:03 – Estimating “n”
5:37 – Estimating “s”
9:52 – Model predictions
15:02 – SETI and our chance of becoming grabby
18:15 – Wrapping up
19:16 – Patreon & channel membership

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51 Comments

  1. This video is 20 minutes long. If we added an opening and an ending, it would be the length of a typical anime episode. If you want to support our work and see more, uhm, anime episodes () you can do so by:

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  2. Maybe I'm wrong or just over thinking this but…
    When we look out deep into space even with our best telescopes. we are looking at light that is millions of years old, So wouldn't that explain why we don't see other civilizations if we are in fact one of the first few to make it past the great filter or climb the many steps? if they are on the same pace as us give or take a few millennia then it would still take so long for their light to reach us that it would near impossible to know they are there.

  3. The model seems a little optimistic in how distant the grabby civilizations can reach. If we're limited to light speed, isn't our own civilization limited to expanding to the Local Group only?

  4. The assumption of a species denying new species the ability to thrive is not only giant, but also extremely pessimistic towards said species. This may be true for warmongering humans for a few more centuries but that's about it. If we create artificial offspring especially then they'll very likely be less selfish and less specist per extension.

  5. What happens if we make a bit of a leap and assume some technology like an Alcubierre Drive can be created, allowing expansion speeds faster than c? Does that break the model entirely, or would the "faster expansion is more likely" conclusion continue to hold and suggest that FTL civilizations are more likely than non-FTL civilizations?

  6. I think the only way that we end up colonizing anything other than the milkyway and andromeda would be faster than light travel. This doesn't seem to take into account the universe expanding faster than the speed of light so I doubt we'd get outside our local group without that.

  7. There's a much simpler solution for the Fermi paradox the solution is that almost every Star in our galaxy and universe is a cataclysmic variable star which produces a a relatively small micro Nova every few thousand years which prevents the vast majority of civilizations to develop that is a solution 🤣🤣😇🔥🔥

  8. Great video. I can see a lot of work was put into this.

    In my very modest uneducated opinion, I doubt that any civilization anywhere in the universe will ever get a chance to become (successfully at least) a grabby, as you say here.

    I believe we always underestimate all the potentially deadly threats that all civilizations have to face inevitably.
    I'm thinking about all the things that the universe will eventually throw at us at some point(s) in time, but also about the threats of our own environments, such as those that our planets can provide on their own, and specially about the threat we represent to ourselves.
    We don't need help to face extinction.

    I mean, just look at us right now, under the menace of a nuclear war.
    We can't deal with ourselves here and now, but somehow everything will go gently when time comes to exploit resources on Mars.
    Sure…

  9. Sometime in the near future, humanity receives messages from a nearby civilization. Peaceful communication is established, and against all odds it seems that both species are at comparable technological levels. "Weren't you scared to contact us?" say the aliens, "We could have been a grabby civilization." The human ambassador shakes his head and replies, "the odds of two grabby civilizations emerging in the same galaxy are incredibly low."

  10. I would be interested to see a video about what happens when two grabby species make contact. Giant Star Wars/imperium of man warfare? Or somthing else completely

  11. "If Grabby Aliens produce changes that we will only notice with better tools, then the model predicts that we will see many civilizations, and they would be big!"
    At first glance this seems counter-intuitive. Could someone explain how this works?

  12. If we are controlling 10,000 to 100,000,000 galaxies, then different branches of humanity will already be like aliens to each other, long before we ever meet true aliens.

  13. How do we know we are not the colony of another galactic power. We may be seeded, or a hybrid of a species that needed to merge with Earth life to continue thier line here in order to habitate this planet. They may return and further implement more of thier alien DNA in later times.

  14. I love how there is so much evidence of ALIEN UFOs visiting Earth yet these silly statements like “shows why we don’t see any aliens” gets slung around like fact. It’s not fact, it’s a flat out denial of proof in front of our faces that grabby aliens already have us in a zoo-like overwatch.

  15. What if the reason why we see no alien is because we are looking into the past so if we formed during a common forming time then we will not see anything because we are looking at the past when they did not exist

  16. I think the last step to becoming "grabby" may be that the civilization loses the will to expand. Humanity has already reached peak-child and peak population is already on the horizon. But it could as well be that we transition from a biological species to a technological species and our robots are doing the expansion in the next few millennia. But what would they want to expand for? Did we program it into them? Would they eventually program it into their progeny or would they stop them from expanding?

  17. One of the misconceptions is that civilizations stay the same, "biologically". What will happen to Humanity is that our ability to influence the next generation of Humans increases. Today we get already them started with education, a technology base and permanent records of scientific discoveries. Increasingly, we will genetically modify our progeny, or at least select for certain traits. Eventually we will incorporate technology into our children, gradually changing what is Human. We may eventually conceive of AIs with no trace of our current biology. And those AIs will continue to evolve their children. At any point in time, some, most or all individuals of such a generation might decide not to procreate.

  18. What if Hard step 6 is "You must learn to stop being so bloody grabby, before you cook your selves on your home planet" ? Equilibrium in motion is the fundamental pattern, from cosmos to ecosystems. Uninhibited Expansion is only the localised pattern of a semi-self-conscious dominant lifeform with big biological hangovers of fear and greed. Perhaps the distance between stars is a design feature to ensure adolescent grabbies either get over their "selves", or cook themselves before they can mess up the whole garden? Don't forget that every grabby-based civilization on this planet throughout history has failed. Yes, they were the fore runners to our own, and yes, we learned some lessons. But not too well. Look at us. Fighting, cheating, bitching little clans. Perhaps, the self-cooking is actually a necessary step, for burning away the little separate fearful ego en-masse? If so, then welcome to hard step 6 people: Learning to surrender the concept of your separate grabby self, to the knowledge that you, and the universe, are One, with no separation. You are the universe. And if you get it,, there's nowhere else to go. Then maybe we'll be quiet enough to be able to tune into the music of the spheres. In the meantime, may our transition to Self knowledge be not too painful as its probably gonna get hot. Good luck everyone.

  19. By this model, there is a small but still likely chance that humanity could be the first intelligent life in our galaxy/local group. Making us the "precursor" race that sci fi stories love to use as a trope

  20. Different types of pneumonia require their own specific treatments can i order generic cytotec without a prescription For each experiment, mice were randomly distributed into equal groups 3 4 mice per group that were untreated, or treated by intratumoral injections every 5 days 4 cycles with 1 mg kg or 4 mg kg doxorubicin, 10 mg kg paclitaxel, 20 mg kg carboplatin, 200 Ојg mL metformin diluted in drinking water and present throughout the experiment starting at day 10, or combinations that included metformin

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